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GIEWS Update - Agricultural production risks associated with El Niño conditions and shipping disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, 29 June 2026

  • Publication | 2026
Global Food and Nutrition Security

The ongoing El Niño event is expected to persist through at least early 2027, bringing an increased risk of extreme weather events that could adversely affect agricultural production in several regions. Dry weather conditions are forecast in parts of sub‑Saharan Africa, Far East Asia and Central America, while above-average rainfall amounts are foreseen in Near East Asia. The impacts of the shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could exacerbate El Niño-related production risks, through shortages and high prices of agricultural inputs. While the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding on 17 June 2026, the economic, trade and geopolitical repercussions of the conflict are expected to last longer.

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03 Jul 2026

Related organisation(s)FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Knowledge service | MetadataGlobal Food and Nutrition Security | Food crises and food and nutrition security | Access to financeCountries affected by conflictExtreme weather eventFood price crisis
Digital Europa Thesaurus (DET)extreme weatheragricultural productionprice of agricultural produceagricultural marketagricultural tradefertiliser
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