The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2026

Highlights: 

1. Global food and agricultural markets are operating in an era of heightened uncertainty driven by extreme weather events, financial disturbances, geopolitical tensions and conflicts, pandemics, outbreaks of diseases and pests, energy price fluctuations, and socioeconomic crises. These shocks affect supply, demand, prices and trade flows, and their effects can be transitory or persistent. 
2. Global food and agricultural trade has proven resilient, but shocks can still lead to substantial short-term disruptions. So far, these effects have been transitory, pointing to the capacity of the global markets to absorb, adapt to and recover from shocks. Nevertheless, even short-term effects can give rise to significant food security risks. 
3. Global food trade networks have become denser and more interconnected, with countries trading with a larger number of partners than in the past. This increased connectivity enhances resilience by providing alternative sourcing options when disruptions occur. Nevertheless, cereal trade networks remain highly concentrated. Only a few exporters account for a large share of global cereal exports, creating efficiency gains under normal conditions but significant vulnerabilities under stress. 
4. Shocks to global food commodity markets give rise to significant price effects, which can transmit to domestic markets, driving food insecurity and adverse nutrition outcomes. The lower the buffer capacity of a market, the higher the price spike. Trade expansion can contribute towards global markets that are more resilient to shocks. 
5. In the event of a shock, trade policies by major players aiming to insulate domestic markets test the resilience of global food commodity markets. Export restrictions withdraw supplies from the global market, while import facilitation strengthens demand. This further exacerbates the shock’s effect on world prices, driving them higher. 
6. Food stocks are an integral component of resilience strategies. Maintaining large buffer stocks to stabilize domestic prices distorts markets and has proven to be highly costly and fiscally unsustainable. Emergency food reserves, combined with well-targeted social protection measures, such as cash transfers and food assistance, have proven to be more effective in protecting vulnerable populations during crises. 
7. Effective integration in global food markets and well-diversified trade connectivity are long-term strategies to build and strengthen resilience to shocks. Evidence from past crises and the findings in this report indicate that, in the event of a major shock, all countries stand to gain from international cooperation.