2026-2027 El Niño food security impacts

Key messages:

• The 2026/27 El Niño has rapidly strengthened to very strong levels and is expected to drive significant rainfall anomalies across FEWS NET geographies. Below-average rainfall has already occurred across unimodal areas of East Africa, the Sahel of West Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Pakistan. Southern Africa will face below-average rains during the October 2026 to March 2027 rainy season, while the Horn of Africa will see heavy rains and heightened flood risk during the October to December 2026 rains. 
• The most severe food insecurity outcomes from El Niño-induced rainfall anomalies typically emerge during the following lean season, rather than during the rainy season itself. This makes El Niño an important early warning signal, giving governments and humanitarians time to deliver a humanitarian food assistance response before the most severe acute food insecurity materializes.
• Unimodal East Africa and Southern Africa are of highest concern. In both regions, El Niño is expected to result in widespread drought and be the primary driver of high food assistance needs in 2027. 
• While El Niño is expected to have its most significant food security impacts in areas directly affected by extreme rainfall anomalies, indirect impacts are likely to emerge through regional and international trade and markets. These indirect import-related risks are particularly elevated in Southern Africa through regional maize trade, and in West Africa and Yemen through international imports.
• Global output of maize, wheat, and rice has changed little on balance in the strong and very strong El Niño years since 1980. In the crop marketing years of these events, global output fell by at most 3.9 percent from the year before, in 1987/88. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects global 2026/27 production of these crops to be 2.7 percent below last year, but still the second-largest crop on record.
• Food security outcomes are often driven by multiple coexisting shocks. FEWS NET’s assessed populations in need are available in many of FEWS NET’s global and country-level products, but these estimates represent needs driven by all relevant factors. This report does not seek to – and it is often not feasible to – disentangle the relative contribution of each driver in order to identify needs attributable to one factor, in this case El Niño only. Nonetheless, the regional summaries do identify where El Niño is, or is not, considered a primary driver of acute food insecurity and associated food assistance needs.
• Beyond its immediate impacts, El Niño can increase vulnerability to future shocks by eroding household coping capacity. Where livelihoods are damaged and recovery is insufficient, households will face greater difficulty managing subsequent shocks. The longer-term food security implications depend not only on current rainfall conditions, but also on efforts to mitigate risks and support recovery.
• While this report focuses on early warning of both the ongoing and forecast impacts of the 2026/27 El Niño, it is important to signal early warning for the forecast transition to La Niña in mid-to-late 2027. Although confidence in this transition is relatively low given the long lead time, a shift to La Niña should be prepared for, as it will introduce a new set of rainfall impacts and food security risks.