JRC supports Eurostat with new regional population projections for the EU

Eurostat has published a new population projections for regions across the European Union as part of the EUROPOP2025 projection round. Prepared by the JRC the projections cover all 1,165 NUTS 3 regions in the 27 EU Member States. They show how the population of each region could change between 2025 and 2100, broken down by age and sex.

Population decline would affect most regions

Under the baseline assumptions, 837 of the 1,165 regions would have fewer residents in 2050 than in 2025. Together, these regions were home to around 258 million people in 2025, representing 57% of the EU population.

Population decline would be particularly widespread in the Baltic States, eastern Germany, eastern Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, southern Italy and inland areas of the Iberian Peninsula. By contrast, population growth would be concentrated in a smaller number of regions, mainly around capitals and other large cities.

What if there were no migration?

Eurostat is also publishing scenarios prepared by the JRC to show how the projections change when different assumptions are used. The first of these is a no-migration scenario, which assumes no international migration and no migration between regions.

Under this scenario, 1,124 regions – 96% of all EU regions – would have fewer residents in 2050 than in 2025, compared with 837 regions, or 72%, under the baseline assumptions.

Only 41 regions would still see population growth through natural increase, meaning that births would outnumber deaths. Most of these regions are in France and Ireland.