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El Niño Through a Displacement Lens: Mobility Outlook in East Africa - August 2026

  • Publication | 2026
Global Food and Nutrition Security

Highlights:

This outlook provides the first scenario-based estimates of flood-driven displacement during the 2026 October–December (OND) season in Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda.

The analysis sets out three scenarios representing different plausible ways the season could develop, based on the state of two ocean systems that strongly influence East African rainfall. For each scenario, the analysis estimates displacement at national and district levels and presents a wider estimate of people affected. The core model combines forecast rainfall with physical flood exposure, seasonal patterns, river-system information and past displacement. The outlook covers displacement caused by riverine flooding, flash and pluvial floods, storms and rainfall-triggered landslides. It excludes drought- and conflict-related displacement. Flooding can interact with conflict, access constraints and pre-existing vulnerability, but those interactions are not yet modelled.

Resources
More information and links
Publisher
Danish Refugee Council (DRC)
Geographic coverageKenyaSomaliaSouth SudanUganda
Available from

12 Oct 2026

Knowledge service | MetadataGlobal Food and Nutrition Security | Food crises and food and nutrition security | Climate extreme
Digital Europa Thesaurus (DET)Monitoringdisaster risk reductioninternally displaced personflood
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