The effects of El Niño on Global Food Security and Nutrition – Issue 2, October

Based on a selection of 28 references from trusted sources, the Knowledge Centre for Global Food and Nutrition Security has elaborated this review to document the impacts of El Niño on food security and nutrition, as of October 2026. Further updates will be provided as the situation evolves. 

The 2026–2027 El Niño is developing in an already highly stressed global food system and is expected to intensify food insecurity, malnutrition risks and food price pressures across several vulnerable regions. El Niño disrupts rainfall and temperature patterns globally, causing droughts, floods and heat stress that damage crops, livestock, markets and trade infrastructure. These impacts are especially severe where climate shocks overlap with conflict, displacement and fragile livelihoods, such as in parts of East Africa and Central America. 

The current El Niño is strengthening rapidly and is now considered highly likely to persist through February 2027, potentially becoming one of the strongest El Niño since 1950. In parallel, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may reinforce rainfall anomalies, especially increasing flood risks in East Africa.  

More than 18 million additional people could be affected in East and Southern Africa regions. Latin America and the Caribbean are also expected to see a sharp deterioration, with more than 16 million people affected; Central America stands out because drought and high temperatures are threatening both major agricultural seasons and could drive the largest proportional increase in acute food insecurity among the areas analysed. 

Food commodity prices are expected to rise further into 2027, with OECD projections pointing to an average increase of 11% by the second quarter of 2027 compared with the third quarter of 2026. Historical analysis suggests that El Niño-related food price effects can persist for up to two years. Wheat, maize and rice prices are already on the rise, while global production forecasts point to declines in wheat, maize and rice output,; conversely, soybean production is expected to increase.  

Although early action planning has improved, financing remains insufficient. Several anticipatory action protocols are in place in Africa, and some emergency funding has already been pre-positioned or disbursed, including for Ethiopia and Somalia. Nevertheless, broader humanitarian response plans remain significantly underfunded, limiting the ability to act early and at scale despite clear warnings.