Black Sea disruptions in the context of multiple shocks

Highlights:

The analysis shows that:

Compound shocks: Black Sea disruptions come on top of geopolitical fracture, fiscal contraction and weather extremes, all converging on global agrifood systems in 2026.
Trade and shipping: Attacks since late June have disrupted Black Sea shipping: dry bulk volumes through the Bosphorus are down 48% from just before tensions intensified with trade only partially rerouted through alternative solutions (rail, Danube).
International prices: Prices are firming (+19% wheat EU, +10% corn US, +11% soybean oil US, +8–20% rice Thailand), but the impact is so far mitigated by ample global grain supplies. The mid-term risk is cross-commodity price contagion.
Producers: Limited export possibilities are depressing domestic prices in Ukraine: milling wheat was quoted about 31 percent below Western Europe prices, and 11 million tonnes of grain need additional storage capacity.
Stocks: Wheat stocks of major exporters would fall to historically low levels if Ukraine and the Russian Federation could not export.
Food security: Countries dependent on Black Sea wheat have not seen above-average deterioration in acute food insecurity so far, but several highly food-insecure importers remain directly exposed and need close monitoring.

Resources

Black Sea disruptions in the context of multiple shocks

Adapt to Thrive: Transforming Food Systems in Africa - The Case for Investing in Agroecology

Highlights: This paper by ActionAid synthesises the findings of an extensive review of uptake of agroecology in 10 African countries: Ethiopia, the Gambia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda...

PUBLICATION | 15 Oct 2026

Toxic Dependency: How Agrochemicals Lock In Food System Vulnerability

Highlights: Drawing on contributions from twenty-nine expert partners, including researchers, farmer movements, Indigenous organizations, and civil society networks from around the globe, this compendium: • Maps...

ONLINE RESOURCE | 19 Oct 2026

People at High Risk from Climate Hazards (PARCH)

The World Bank People at High Risk from Climate Hazards (PARCH) service shows both where people are exposed to climate hazards, and where they lack...

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Geographic coverage	Global
Available from	23 Oct 2026
Related organisation(s)	FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Knowledge service \| Metadata	Global Food and Nutrition Security \| Food crises and food and nutrition security \| Access to food Early warning system Food availability
Digital Europa Thesaurus (DET)	agricultural trade risk management disaster risk reduction extreme weather Conflict economic conditions impact study price of agricultural produce

Black Sea disruptions in the context of multiple shocks

Adapt to Thrive: Transforming Food Systems in Africa - The Case for Investing in Agroecology

Toxic Dependency: How Agrochemicals Lock In Food System Vulnerability

People at High Risk from Climate Hazards (PARCH)

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