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The demand for long‑term care at home will increase as EU’s population is ageing and more people live alone.

As the EU population is ageing, more people are expected to need long-term care (LTC) at home. Healthy ageing can only partially mitigate this trend. At the same time, more people are living alone and may have fewer family members available to provide informal care. Meeting the growing need for LTC at home will require a considerable increase of the formal care workforce.

  • News | 29 Oct 2026
Migration and Demography
An older woman and a young woman sitting together on a couch, sharing a tablet.
(@Studio Dva Kera - stock.adobe.com)

Long-term care refers to services and assistance for people who need nursing care or support with everyday activities, because of mental or physical frailty, disease or disability over an extended period. Although each EU Member States is responsible for designing and delivering care, they face common challenges: a rapidly ageing population that is expected to increase the request for LTC services, and the need to ensure that care remains affordable and accessible for those in need.  

On the International Day of Care and Support  the JRC published a new report presenting how the demand for LTC at home in the EU could change between 2025 and 2075. It covers both formal care provided by paid professional workers and informal care by unpaid family members or friends.

The results show that more people across the EU will need LTC at home in the coming decades. Indeed, if care needs at each age remain the same as today the share of people aged over 50 who need LTC will rise from 19.4% in 2025 to 25.6% by 2075. Healthy ageing could moderate this growth but is unlikely to reverse the trend. 

The need for formal LTC at home is projected to rise the most. This is because demand is highest among people aged 90 and over in the EU, whose numbers are expected to more than triple from 2025 to 2075. At the same time, smaller households are becoming more common, meaning that more people who need LTC are expected to live without a partner or relative who can support them. This would place even greater pressure on the formal care workforce than population ageing alone would suggest.  

The definition of LTC needs 

The definition of LTC needs used in the EU-wide projections has been discussed and justified in another recent JRC publication. This report provides guidance on the definitions and indicators developed by the Eurostat’s Task Force on Long-Term Care (TFLTC), applying them to data from the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE).  

Since demand for LTC at home is projected to grow under every scenario considered, Member States could prepare in several ways. Integrated approaches towards LTC and healthcare provision, alongside increased efforts to invest in prevention and healthy ageing, could support more coordinated and effective care. Formal LTC services should be accessible and affordable regardless of family circumstances, income or place of living. Their capacity should expand gradually, in line with workforce planning and regular monitoring of unmet needs and considering untapped opportunities to address workforce shortages in the sector. At the same time, adequate support should be provided for informal caregivers, alongside investment in healthy ageing. By explicitly incorporating variables such as household size into long-term care models, planners can better align resources with future care needs, reflecting the specific needs of the population by gender, age and accounting for those who cannot rely on a partner, child or other relatives. 

Further reading


Long-term care in the EU27: overview of demand projection models – This report sets the foundation for the LTC demand projection model developed by the JRC. 

Informal long-term care in the context of demographic change and intergenerational fairness in the EU - This science-for-policy brief explores the differences in caregiving and care-receiving patterns across generations in the context of an ageing population. 

The future of EU households: projected population distribution by household types - This report proposes a harmonised methodology to project how individuals will be distributed across household types over the next 80 years in the European Union. 

Estimating long-term care needs using SHARE data - This report aims to provide guidance on how the definitions and indicators developed by the Task Force on Long-Term Care (TFLTC) supporting the Eurostat can be applied to data from the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). 

 

More information on Commission initiatives on LTC are available at: 

DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion - Long-term care 

More information and links
Originally Published | Last Updated

28 Oct 2026 | 29 Oct 2026

Knowledge service | MetadataMigration and Demography | DemographyHealth | Health care accessHealth inequalitiesHealth policyPopulation ageingPopulation projections
Digital Europa Thesaurus (DET)population ageinghealth statistics
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