The effects of El Niño on Global Food Security and Nutrition - Issue 3, November 2026

The 2026 El Niño is rapidly intensifying and likely to become the strongest on records. It is affecting global food security and nutrition through a combination of drought, floods, heat, disease risk and economic disruption. It is described as potentially unprecedented in strength, with sea-surface temperature anomalies rising sharply during 2026 and a high probability of reaching historically strong levels by December 2026. Although the climatic peak is expected near the end of the year, food security and nutrition impacts are likely to continue well beyond that period.  

Its main pathways are agricultural and livelihood shocks. El Niño brings severe rainfall volatility, including droughts and heavy floods, sometimes in the same places within a few months. The most exposed groups are rain-fed smallholders, pastoralists and populations already affected by conflict. For children, the nutritional effects often appear later, through poorer diets, rising disease exposure and disruption of health and nutrition services.  

The hardest-hit areas as of November  2026 include Central America, East Africa, and parts of Southeast Asia. Severe impacts are also anticipated for Southern Africa, whose main season is about to start, and for flooding in East Africa. In Central America, severe drought reduced maize production in the primera season and disrupted the following postrera cycle, especially in the Dry Corridor, where smallholders experienced significant crop losses and reduced planting.  

In East Africa, below-average rainfall and high temperatures reduced crops and pasture during key agricultural seasons, while in conflict-affected Sudan and South Sudan drought is worsening already severe humanitarian conditions. However, forecasts also indicate a likely shift towards above-average rainfall and flood risk in the eastern Horn of Africa and the Lake Victoria basin later in the season.  

In Southern Africa, forecasts point to below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures through March 2027, threatening maize production and likely increasing food assistance needs in 2027. Southeast Asia has also seen additional heat and dryness, which intensified wildfire risk.  

Nutrition risks are especially serious for children. In Southern Africa 652,000 children are already acutely malnourished, while in the Greater Horn and East Africa 4.9 million children are acutely malnourished, including 1.5 million requiring treatment for severe acute malnutrition. Disease outbreaks such as cholera, measles, malaria and diphtheria increase the danger, and evidence from past El Niño cycles shows links between stronger El Niño conditions and higher diarrhoea risk among young children.  

Economically, El Niño is worsening inflation and income losses. Although global harvest conditions for some major crops remain relatively favourable and the FAO Food Price Index fell in October, strong regional pressures persist, and food inflation remains elevated in many countries. Therefore, anticipatory action as early warning, drought-resistant seeds, water storage, livestock protection, nutrition screening, continuity of care and timely cash or in-kind support becomes key to prevent food crises. Such action has already been activated in multiple countries and can substantially reduce humanitarian losses.