Case 01 - Estonia: one MP, one committee, and a foresight process back from the dead

Overview

What

The Foresight Centre, an independent unit under the Chancellery of the Riigikogu (Parliament), created by the Foresight Act 2016 with a statutory mandate to run thematic foresight, build scenarios, and brief committees and party groups.

Why

The Estonian Development Fund, which had combined venture capital and foresight functions since 2006, was wound down and merged into Enterprise Estonia — foresight risked disappearing entirely along with it.

How

When the Prime Minister’s Office declined to take over the function, the Speaker of the Riigikogu and a member of the Economic Affairs Committee championed a parliamentary solution instead, resulting in a law that gave foresight a statutory, parliamentary — rather than investment-side — home.

Lessons learnt

Foresight tied too closely to one institutional host (here, an investment fund) is vulnerable when that host changes or closes — a lesson learned the hard way, then fixed by anchoring it in a more durable institution (Parliament itself) instead. Even with a statutory basis, impact still depends on whether committees actually invite the Centre into real legislative and budget debates rather than treating its reports as a parallel product nobody reads.