Evolution of global agrifood trade and trade policy and implications for nutrition

While international agrifood trade is critically relevant for the availability and supply of food across many countries, import tariffs are a policy instrument with relatively modest potential to steer consumers towards purchasing more nutritious food.

Employing a number of newly developed datasets, this research project examines patterns and developments in the links between agrifood trade and nutrition and assesses how trade policy shapes food prices.

The analysis is undertaken at a global level with a focus on the Near East and North Africa (NENA) region, a set of countries which is particularly dependent on agrifood imports. The results show that agrifood imports are a critical source of calories, macro-nutrients as well as vitamins and minerals for most countries in the world. On the supply side, a small number of countries account for the bulk of globally traded calories and nutrients. These findings show that calorie and nutrient availabilities are shaped significantly by global trade. With regard to how import tariffs affect the relative prices of foods with different nutritional characteristics, econometric estimations suggest that on average import tariffs have only a relatively modest effect on the relative prices of different foods. The concentration patterns of caloric and nutrient supply in a small number of supplying countries reinforce calls to diversify global food markets and trade. As for trade policy options, the modest effects of tariffs suggest that exploring other domestic and trade policy options would be necessary to significantly improve nutritional outcomes.